Kalshi Traders See 56% Chance May Payrolls Top 90,000 Forecast as Fed Nears June 16 Meeting
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jun 1
Kalshi Traders See 56% Chance May Payrolls Top 90,000 Forecast as Fed Nears June 16 Meeting
1 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jun 1
Kalshi traders on Monday priced a 56% probability that Friday’s May nonfarm payrolls report will beat the 90,000-job Dow Jones consensus, even as hiring is expected to slow from April’s 115,000 gain.
Those bets imply a modest upside surprise rather than a strong rebound: contracts showed a 49% chance payrolls exceed 100,000 and a 40% chance they top 110,000.
RBC Economics was slightly more optimistic than Wall Street, forecasting 99,000 new jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, while noting payroll gains have averaged just 55,000 a month over the past six months.
The report lands before the Federal Reserve’s June 16-17 meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, where policymakers are expected to hold rates steady but could weigh labor-market strength and wage data.
Dow Jones expects average hourly earnings to rise 3.4% from a year earlier and 0.3% from April, compared with 3.6% annual and 0.2% monthly growth in the prior report.
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