Goldman Sachs Gives Spain 26% World Cup Odds as France Trails at 19%

9 articles · Updated · CNN · Jun 1

Spain tops Goldman Sachs’ latest World Cup model with a 26% title chance, ahead of France at 19% and defending champion Argentina at 14%.
One million simulations drawing on nearly 20,000 matches since 1978 fed the forecast, which weighs historical results, scoring talent, momentum and geography while flagging a possible post-title slump for Argentina.
For the 48-team field, Goldman put hosts Mexico at a 68% chance to reach the Round of 16, Canada at 50% and the United States at 39%.
Goldman cautioned that soccer’s unpredictability limits the model, and its 2018 forecast missed badly after favoring Brazil over a final that ended with France beating Croatia.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Bet365 put Spain below 20%, suggesting crowd-based odds remain more conservative than Goldman’s bank-built model.

Why does Goldman's model favor Spain while betting markets see a toss-up with France?

With key players injured, is the US team's predicted 39% chance of advancing just a fantasy?

Is Goldman's flawed World Cup model more about financial marketing than football analysis?