Rubio Climbs to 30% in 2028 GOP Race as Vance Slips to 33% on Kalshi
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jun 1
Rubio Climbs to 30% in 2028 GOP Race as Vance Slips to 33% on Kalshi
4 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jun 1
Kalshi traders lifted Marco Rubio’s 2028 Republican nomination odds to 30% on Monday, up from about 12% on Jan. 1 and just 3 points behind JD Vance.
Vance’s odds fell to 33% from roughly 50% as reports said Donald Trump has questioned him as a successor, citing Vance’s initial opposition to the Iran war.
Rubio’s rise accelerated around major military episodes, including Nicolas Maduro’s January capture and the late-February start of the Iran war, while a viral White House speech in May fueled 2028 speculation.
Those same conflicts have weakened the party’s broader outlook: Kalshi now prices Republican 2028 White House odds at 39%, down from 45% before the Iran war.
Polymarket shows a similar tightening race, with Vance at 31% and Rubio just under 27%, suggesting the succession contest is no longer one-sided.
With polls and prediction markets clashing, which is the better guide to 2028?
How will the volatile situation in Iran ultimately define the next presidential contenders?