Scientists say the last ice shelf buttressing Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier could disintegrate within months, accelerating instability at the so-called Doomsday Glacier.
Heating subsurface water is eroding the glacier’s eastern ice shield from below, while satellite images show fractures and rifts widening as the shelf’s internal structure weakens.
A full Thwaites collapse could eventually add about 3 meters of global sea-level rise, sharply increasing flood risk for low-lying coasts worldwide.
The Netherlands, where about one-third of the country lies below sea level, and Bangladesh, where 15 million to 30 million people could be displaced by a 1-meter rise, are among the most exposed.
Island states including the Maldives and Micronesia, along with U.S. coastal cities such as Miami, New York and New Orleans, also face mounting long-term risk.
With the Doomsday Glacier's collapse imminent, is a global coastal property crisis next?
Can an underwater wall in Antarctica be built in time to save our coastal cities?
When a nation vanishes beneath the waves, what happens to its people and sovereignty?
Thwaites Glacier Collapse 2026: Sea-Level Rise, Socio-Economic Fallout, and the Race for Global Solutions
Overview
As of May 2026, Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier—known as the “Doomsday Glacier”—is entering a critical phase, with its Eastern Ice Shelf already fractured and set to disintegrate this year. The breakup is underway, but local geography will likely keep the detached ice close to the glacier for now. This ongoing disintegration marks a major change, highlighting the glacier’s vulnerability and the dynamic processes at play. The situation underscores the accelerating instability of Thwaites Glacier, signaling urgent challenges for scientists and raising concerns about future impacts on global sea levels.