Updated
Updated · newsroompanama.com · May 30
Panama Cuts 2025 Deficit to 3.7%, Keeps Baa3 Rating as Moody's Flags Investment Cuts
Updated
Updated · newsroompanama.com · May 30

Panama Cuts 2025 Deficit to 3.7%, Keeps Baa3 Rating as Moody's Flags Investment Cuts

1 articles · Updated · newsroompanama.com · May 30

Summary

  • Moody’s said Panama narrowed its 2025 non-financial public sector deficit to 3.7% of GDP from 6.2% in 2024, beating the 4.0% legal ceiling while keeping its Baa3 sovereign rating.
  • More than 2% of GDP in spending cuts drove the improvement, largely by halting new infrastructure projects and restructuring existing works rather than through lasting revenue or current-spending reforms.
  • The negative outlook remains because Moody’s sees risk in relying on capital-spending cuts that may undermine long-term growth and prove hard to repeat as postponed projects return.
  • Q1 2026 brought a 1.4% deficit, helped by strong tax collection and tight current-spending control, supporting Panama’s 3.5% full-year target under its fiscal rule.
  • Moody’s expects growth and higher Panama Canal contributions to aid revenues, with public debt stabilizing around 66%-67% of GDP by 2027 if deeper tax and budget reforms advance.

Insights

With its largest mine now closed, can Panama's new tax reforms prevent an economic crisis?
As Panama cuts spending, can it afford to solve the Panama Canal's critical water crisis?