Brent Nears $85 Target as Oil Markets Reconnect After Strait Shock

2 articles · Updated · robinjbrooks.substack.com · May 30

$90 Brent crude is moving toward an $85 target if a peace deal reopens the Strait of Hormuz, after trading near $100 earlier this week.
Regional benchmarks have largely recoupled and the gap between physical and paper oil prices has closed, signaling that the worst market dislocations from the conflict have eased.
$85 would not mean a full return to prewar conditions: tanker traffic may recover slowly, Iranian hard-liners could still threaten shipping, and depleted supply buffers leave a residual risk premium in place.
$4-a-gallon U.S. gasoline is the expected next step if Brent falls further, with pump prices likely to follow crude lower after a lag of a few weeks.

With global oil reserves nearly gone, is the era of stable energy prices over for good?

Is the predicted $4 gasoline price a new floor rather than a temporary ceiling?

A peace deal might reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but who will stop the saboteurs?