KOF Nowcast and Kalshi Bets Diverge on Germany's Q2 GDP as 2-Quarter Recession Rule Already Triggers
Updated
Updated · Econbrowser · May 30
KOF Nowcast and Kalshi Bets Diverge on Germany's Q2 GDP as 2-Quarter Recession Rule Already Triggers
1 articles · Updated · Econbrowser · May 30
Germany’s Q2 outlook now hinges on fresh KOF nowcast data from May 30 and Kalshi betting prices, which offer different signals on whether GDP will keep shrinking after two negative quarters.
Two straight GDP declines already satisfy Kalshi’s recession rule, leaving its German recession market marked “determined,” even though major cycle-dating groups have not declared a recession.
Employment kept rising through 2024Q4 while GDP fell, a split that helps explain why the German Council of Economic Experts, ECRI and the Conference Board have held back from calling a recession.
Ifo’s May 26 estimate, KOF’s nowcast, Kalshi pricing, DIW’s March forecast and the IMF’s April baseline are not expected to align because they use different methods and assumptions, including energy-price conditions.
Germany's GDP is falling but jobs are rising. Is its economic model breaking or just transforming?
With its industrial core shrinking, can Germany's economy find a new engine for growth before it is too late?
Is Germany's energy crisis a national problem or the next major threat to the entire Eurozone's stability?