Ifo and KOF Issue German Q2 GDP Nowcasts as 2024 Employment Rose Despite Output Slump
Updated
Updated · Econbrowser · May 30
Ifo and KOF Issue German Q2 GDP Nowcasts as 2024 Employment Rose Despite Output Slump
4 articles · Updated · Econbrowser · May 30
May 26 and May 30 updates from Ifo and KOF added fresh Q2 nowcasts for German GDP, alongside IMF baseline projections and Kalshi market pricing that point to differing views of near-term growth.
Germany’s output had been falling while employment kept rising through 2024Q4, a split that has helped keep the German Council of Economic Experts, ECRI and the Conference Board from declaring a recession.
The report says the nowcasts should not be expected to match either each other or betting-market signals, because Ifo and KOF use accounting-style estimates while Kalshi reflects mixed contract conditions and the IMF assumes specific energy-price paths.
That leaves Germany’s Q2 trajectory uncertain even as recession labeling remains constrained by the two-consecutive-negative-quarters rule used in Kalshi’s German market.
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