Jeff Asher Predicts 2026 Homicide Rate Could Hit FBI Record Low
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · May 30
Jeff Asher Predicts 2026 Homicide Rate Could Hit FBI Record Low
1 articles · Updated · The New York Times · May 30
Jeff Asher said the 2026 U.S. homicide rate could become the lowest ever recorded in FBI statistics, marking a sharp reversal from the pandemic-era crime surge.
Five years after murders neared a 2020 high, the decline has spread nationally, with killings falling not just back to pre-pandemic levels but potentially below any prior FBI benchmark.
Baltimore illustrates the turnaround: murders fell to 133 in 2025 from 348 in 2019 and 234 in 2008, after the city's rate had climbed to about eight times the national average.
The opinion piece argues that drop shows how quickly violent crime can recede and suggests policy choices, not just temporary post-pandemic normalization, may be helping drive the change.
As urban murders plummet, why is a different gun violence epidemic—suicide—surging across America?
With crime at historic lows, can cities sustain this peace as the federal funds that fueled it expire?
America’s Homicide Rate Plummets to Historic Lows: What’s Behind the 2025–2026 Decline?
Overview
The United States is seeing a historic and significant drop in homicide rates, with the downward trend in violent crime becoming clear before 2025 and continuing strongly through 2025. Early signs from that year set the stage for even greater progress in 2026, as cities across the country reported positive developments. Experts now highlight impressive crime reductions and suggest that 2026 could reach new record lows. This momentum shows a broad and systemic improvement in public safety, marking a remarkable shift in national crime trends.