Trump Lacks 50 GOP Votes for Supreme Court Pick as 4 Senate Republicans Waver

2 articles · Updated · Newsweek · May 24

Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, but analysts say Trump likely cannot confirm a Supreme Court nominee if Samuel Alito or Clarence Thomas retires because he can afford to lose only three GOP votes.
Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Thom Tillis are already seen as likely defectors, and Bill Cassidy's recent primary loss after clashing with Trump could provide the fourth no vote that sinks a nomination.
That vulnerability has grown as Trump's "revenge tour" targets Republican senators who crossed him, including John Cornyn in Texas, deepening tensions with lawmakers whose votes would be decisive.
The stakes are heightened by a tougher 2026 map: strategists now call Senate control a coin toss, and Trump's approval is underwater in battlegrounds including Maine at -17, Michigan at -14 and Texas at -3.
Any confirmation fight remains hypothetical for now, since Alito and Thomas have both indicated they plan to stay on the bench despite persistent retirement speculation around Alito.

How does the Senate's structure affect a president's ability to appoint Supreme Court justices?