Analyst Backs Paraguay Double Chance at -130 Against USA in Group D Opener

2 articles · Updated · BetMGM · May 28

Paraguay Double Chance at -130 is the analyst’s pick for the USA’s World Cup campaign opener in Los Angeles, despite the USMNT being rated a 0.5-goal favorite.
23 points from their last 12 qualifiers under Gustavo Alfaro drive that call: Paraguay lost only once in competitive play during that stretch, a 1-0 road defeat to Brazil.
Paraguay also finished level on points with Brazil, Colombia and Uruguay, and beat both Brazil and Argentina at home while taking four points from Uruguay.
Defensive numbers strengthen the case—only two teams topped 1.5 expected goals against Paraguay in their last 12 matches—while the USA enter after friendly losses to Portugal and Belgium.
The analyst argues the teams’ gap is overstated, noting the USA’s recent 2-1 friendly win over Paraguay came with different personnel than each side typically uses in competitive matches.

Are oddsmakers ignoring Paraguay's elite record by favoring a US team plagued by injuries and poor form?

Can Pochettino’s system overcome key injuries and a thin midfield to defeat Paraguay's disciplined defense in the World Cup opener?