Cato Says 1920s Immigration Quotas Cut Native Wages 2.6% as Trump Pushes Mass Deportations
Updated
Updated · Fortune · May 29
Cato Says 1920s Immigration Quotas Cut Native Wages 2.6% as Trump Pushes Mass Deportations
2 articles · Updated · Fortune · May 29
A new Cato Institute study found U.S. counties more exposed to the 1920s immigration quotas saw worse long-run outcomes for native-born white men, with sons less likely to surpass their fathers’ occupational status.
A 5-percentage-point increase in quota exposure reduced weekly wages by 2.6%, based on county-level quota measures matched with 1900, 1920 and 1940 census records and linked family data.
Researchers said labor substitution from other U.S. regions, Mexico or Canada appeared too limited to explain the damage, pointing instead to lost complementarities that had helped native workers move into higher-skilled jobs.
The findings land as Trump expands ICE operations and other studies flag current labor-market strain: an NBER paper found one native-born worker lost a job for every six immigrants removed, while Goldman Sachs projects net immigration at 200,000 in 2026, down 80% from 2010s averages.
As immigration slows, why are native-born workers losing jobs instead of gaining them?
Could current immigration policies be setting the stage for a decade of economic decline?
With immigrant healthcare workers restricted, who will care for America's aging population?
The Economic Costs of Mass Deportation: Lessons from History, Data, and Policy Analysis
Overview
This report examines the economic risks of mass deportation proposals, highlighting how removing a large portion of the workforce would create labor shortages, drive up business costs, and lead to higher prices across many sectors. As businesses face reduced consumer demand and disrupted supply chains, job losses would extend to American citizens and legal residents, causing widespread economic harm. The analysis draws on both current projections and historical examples, showing that such policies not only fail to benefit native workers but also threaten overall productivity and stability in the U.S. economy.