Two new papers from Google-linked and Oratomic researchers say quantum computers may be far closer to breaking cryptocurrency encryption than previously thought, with estimates ranging from 10,000 to 500,000 qubits.
The threat centers on elliptic-curve cryptography used by bitcoin, bank transactions and most major cryptocurrencies; researchers say a quantum machine could exploit bitcoin’s roughly 10-minute transaction window in an “on-spend” attack.
That shrinking qubit threshold has intensified calls to adopt post-quantum cryptography by 2029, though some experts argue the deadline may extend to 2036 while still warning bitcoin’s slow governance makes delay especially risky.
Bitcoin faces an added market hazard because panic over rumored vulnerability could trigger losses before any real attack, and software fixes would require broad community consensus or far costlier workarounds.
The risk could spread beyond crypto holders into retirement funds and public pensions through companies such as Strategy, whose bitcoin-heavy balance sheet sits inside products from major asset managers.
With experts split, is the quantum threat to Bitcoin an imminent crisis or technological fear-mongering?
Can Bitcoin's community agree on a fix before quantum computers render the entire network obsolete?
Quantum Computing’s Accelerating Threat: Why Crypto and Critical Infrastructure Must Migrate by 2029
Overview
Quantum computers are rapidly becoming a real threat to current cryptographic standards, especially those used by Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Recent research, including Google's latest findings, shows that breaking Bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) could require far fewer quantum resources than previously thought, making the risk more urgent. This has led experts to warn that the window for switching to post-quantum cryptography is closing fast, with a possible migration deadline as soon as 2029. Organizations relying on outdated risk models may underestimate their exposure, highlighting the need for immediate action to secure digital assets before 'Q-Day' arrives.