Japan Loses 3 Million People in 5 Years as Rural Decline Spreads Across 45 Prefectures
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · May 29
Japan Loses 3 Million People in 5 Years as Rural Decline Spreads Across 45 Prefectures
8 articles · Updated · The New York Times · May 29
123 million people lived in Japan in 2025, down from 126.1 million in 2020 — the biggest five-year census drop since records began in 1920.
Two deaths now outnumber each birth, reflecting years of ultra-low fertility and rapid aging that government pro-birth policies have failed to reverse.
45 of Japan’s 47 prefectures lost population, with Akita and Aomori down about 8% as young residents left for jobs in major cities.
37 million people now live in the Tokyo metropolitan area — about 30% of the national total — while Okinawa was a rare growth spot, helped by the country’s highest fertility rate.
Japan’s population peaked at 128 million in 2008 and is projected to fall to 87 million by 2070, deepening labor shortages, fiscal strain and pressure on health care.
Could Japan's population decline become a blueprint for a more sustainable future?
Are Japan's pro-family policies ignoring the true economic barriers to having children?
Will AI solve Japan's labor crisis or just deepen its social isolation?
Japan’s Birth Rate Hits Record Low: Unpacking the Causes, Consequences, and Urgent Solutions to the Demographic Crisis
Overview
Japan is facing a serious demographic crisis, with its birth rate falling for ten consecutive years and reaching a record low in 2025. Only 705,809 children were born that year, marking a 2.1% drop from 2024 and the lowest number since records began in 1899. The fertility rate also remains persistently low at 1.2 births per woman, which is well below the 2.1 needed to maintain the population. This ongoing decline highlights a deepening national challenge that threatens the country’s future stability and economic strength.