China Home Prices Seen Falling 3.5% in 2026, Rising 0.3% in 2027

2 articles · Updated · Reuters · May 29

A May 18-28 Reuters poll forecasts China home prices will drop 3.5% in 2026—less than the 4.0% fall seen in March—before edging up 0.3% in 2027.
Policy support is expected to slow the downturn as cities roll out subsidies and loosen curbs; Shenzhen eased purchase restrictions in late April and Guangzhou introduced homebuying incentives.
Higher-tier core markets may stabilize first, but suburban and lower-tier cities still face pressure from population outflows and weaker local economies, according to Fitch Ratings.
The broader property slump remains deep: investment is now seen falling 12.0% this year and sales dropping 8.3%, both worse than forecast in March.
Analysts said weak confidence in jobs, incomes and future prices will cap any rebound, with Beijing focused on preventing a disorderly slide rather than engineering a strong recovery.

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