ADP Economist Says White-Collar Peak Ended in 2022 as AI Spreads Knowledge Work
Updated
Updated · Fortune · May 29
ADP Economist Says White-Collar Peak Ended in 2022 as AI Spreads Knowledge Work
1 articles · Updated · Fortune · May 29
Nela Richardson said ADP’s task-level research points to three shifts: white-collar work is shrinking as a distinct category, knowledge work is spreading across more jobs, and companies are only beginning to manage AI adoption deliberately.
ADP is building that view from payroll, wage and job-posting data covering about 1 in 6 U.S. workers, using NLP to break postings into tasks and track which activities gain value or are priced toward zero.
Professional and business services rose from 14.9% of private employment in 2000 to 17.6% in 2022, then began contracting; within that sector, administrative and support roles fell from 47.5% in 2020 to 39.5% by 2025.
Richardson argues AI will not simply leave workers with a smaller slice of the same job: by removing routine tasks, it can widen roles and increase autonomy, making more occupations resemble traditional knowledge work.
That outcome still depends on corporate choices, she said, because companies learned during the pandemic to change quickly but not necessarily to decide carefully what AI should and should not replace.
As AI splits the workforce, what separates the companies that thrive from those left behind?
Will AI truly elevate all workers, or will it create an insurmountable skills gap for the majority?
How will the next generation gain experience if AI automates entry-level tasks?
AI-Driven Disruption: 30% of U.S. Firms Replace White-Collar Workers, Fueling "Forever Layoffs" and Entry-Level Job Loss
Overview
The U.S. white-collar job market is facing major changes, with 30% of companies already replacing workers with AI tools and a rise in frequent, small 'forever layoffs' creating ongoing job insecurity. While AI is transforming work—especially for entry-level roles—broad economic shifts and cautious hiring are making it harder for new graduates to find stable jobs. Despite fears, experts say widespread job loss from AI is not inevitable, and the real challenge is adapting through reskilling and valuing human-centered skills. Companies and educators are focusing on practical experience and continuous learning to help workers thrive in this evolving landscape.