IMD Cuts India Monsoon Forecast to 90% of Normal as El Niño Strengthens

5 articles · Updated · The Indian Express · May 29

90% of the long-period average is now IMD’s forecast for the June-September monsoon, down from 92% in April and the lowest updated May outlook in at least 20 years.
A moderate-to-strong El Niño arriving earlier than expected drove the downgrade, while the Indian Ocean Dipole is now seen staying neutral through the season instead of turning positive and offsetting some damage.
60% is the chance that rainfall falls below 90% of normal, a level seen only in 2009, 2014 and 2015 over the past two decades, putting India on track for its driest year in a decade.
June rainfall is expected below 92% of normal, with above-normal temperatures and 2-3 extra heatwave days likely in parts of northwest India including western Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi.
Nearly three-quarters of India’s annual rainfall comes from the monsoon, so a weak season threatens agriculture, reservoirs, power generation, drinking water supplies and food-price pressures.

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