WEF Economists See 89% Growth Slowdown Risk, With Only 13% Expecting Recession
Updated
Updated · democrata.es · May 28
WEF Economists See 89% Growth Slowdown Risk, With Only 13% Expecting Recession
9 articles · Updated · democrata.es · May 28
89% of chief economists surveyed by the World Economic Forum expect global growth to weaken over the next 12 months, up from 53% in January, while only 13% see a recession.
94% expect inflation to rebound as the Middle East war and any prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption lift energy and food costs; the report says a closure lasting into late 2026 could rival the Covid-19 shock.
21% now expect a substantial deterioration in conditions, versus 6% in January, and economists also see rising market stress: 79% predict more private-debt volatility, 74% public-debt instability and 68% higher stock swings.
Europe faces a higher stagflation risk and the Middle East and North Africa the weakest outlook, while India and the United States are seen as relatively resilient on domestic demand and investment.
AI still underpins the longer-term outlook, with 92% expecting wider adoption, but economists have pushed back the timing of meaningful productivity gains across most sectors.
Can AI's productivity boom arrive in time to rescue the global economy from stagflation?
Are 'safe haven' economies prepared for the hidden strains of a rapid supply chain exodus?
With diplomacy failing, what is the world's plan B for reopening the critical Strait of Hormuz?
Strait of Hormuz Shutdown 2026: Unprecedented Global Supply Chain Crisis and Economic Fallout
Overview
In May 2026, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered an immediate and severe global economic crisis. This event sharply disrupted the flow of oil and essential goods, causing widespread economic fallout and placing intense strain on international trade and supply chains. The damage from this disruption has grown exponentially, making recovery increasingly difficult the longer the strait remains closed. As a result, the international community has urgently called for the restoration of navigational freedoms to stabilize the global economy and prevent further escalation of the crisis.