Citadel Says Markets Underprice 2 Signs of US-Iran Strait of Hormuz Deal
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · May 29
Citadel Says Markets Underprice 2 Signs of US-Iran Strait of Hormuz Deal
5 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · May 29
Citadel Securities said investors may be underestimating the odds of a timely reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a move it says could spark a broad relief rally across markets.
Two signs point to a significant probability that the US and Iran are moving toward an agreement that would restore shipping through the vital oil passage, strategist Frank Flight said.
A reopening would ease a key geopolitical choke point for global energy flows, potentially lifting risk assets while reducing pressure tied to disrupted oil shipments.
If the Strait reopens, will Iran's new transit tolls become the next threat to global trade?
Is Wall Street's optimism on an Iran deal ignoring the reality of a multi-year infrastructure rebuild?
Strait of Hormuz Blocked: The 2026 Iran War’s Impact on Oil, Markets, and Diplomacy
Overview
As May 2026 ends, the United States and Iran are sending mixed signals about a possible deal after recent attacks. Iran’s state TV announced a draft agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the conflict, proposing that the US lift its naval blockade and allow ships to resume normal passage within 30 days. However, the White House quickly dismissed this report. Despite this, Iran’s navy declared that new protocols would ensure safe and stable passage through the strait, highlighting ongoing diplomatic efforts and the complex path toward de-escalation.