White House Reviews CFTC Prediction-Market Rule as Trump Backs Exclusive Federal Control
Updated
Updated · CoinDesk · May 28
White House Reviews CFTC Prediction-Market Rule as Trump Backs Exclusive Federal Control
7 articles · Updated · CoinDesk · May 28
May 26 filings show the White House’s OIRA has begun reviewing a proposed CFTC rule on prediction markets, moving event-contract regulation into a formal federal rulemaking stage.
The proposal’s text is not yet public, but the review signals the CFTC is advancing a broader framework for contracts tied to elections, gaming and sports after months of disputes.
Trump days earlier called it “critically important” that the CFTC keep exclusive authority, reinforcing the agency’s position as states including Illinois and New Jersey challenge some sports-linked contracts as online betting.
That fight could determine how platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket operate nationwide, with the CFTC building on a March request for comment on contracts that may be barred as contrary to the public interest.
With billions at stake, will states or the federal government ultimately control the future of America's prediction markets?
Are these platforms a revolutionary financial tool or just a high-tech way to gamble on nearly everything?
An Army soldier used military secrets for profit. Can regulators truly stop insider trading in these new billion-dollar markets?
U.S. Prediction Markets Face Supreme Court Reckoning: $44 Billion Industry at the Crossroads of Federal and State Power
Overview
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) submitted its proposed rules for prediction markets to the White House for review on May 27, 2026, marking a major step toward formalizing regulation in this fast-growing sector. This review, governed by Executive Order 12866 and involving economic and policy analysis by OIRA, highlights the CFTC’s push for exclusive federal authority—a move that directly clashes with state-level gaming laws. Despite this high-level review, institutional analysts expect that the ultimate decision on the CFTC’s authority will come from federal courts, not executive action, underscoring the ongoing legal battle over who will regulate prediction markets in the U.S.