Russian Fertilizer Producers Gain as Gulf Chokepoints Snarl 20% of Global Exports
Updated
Updated · Forbes · May 28
Russian Fertilizer Producers Gain as Gulf Chokepoints Snarl 20% of Global Exports
2 articles · Updated · Forbes · May 28
Roughly one-third of globally traded fertilizer moving through the Strait of Hormuz is being disrupted, pushing buyers to rethink long-standing supply chains and lifting the strategic value of Russian producers.
Fertilizer markets are more vulnerable than oil because they run through tighter regional logistics, and higher natural-gas costs feed directly into production prices, raising risks to planting cycles and food inflation.
Red Sea rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds about 6,000 kilometers and up to 10 days for shipments, while Houthi threats keep the Bab el-Mandeb corridor insecure even for Israeli and Jordanian exporters.
Russia already supplies about 20% of global fertilizer exports and dominates key nutrients, with BRICS economies consuming roughly half of global demand and offering a large market less constrained by Western sanctions.
The report argues this gives Moscow more durable leverage than oil in the current crisis, because missed fertilizer deliveries can cut crop yields months later and deepen food-security and political risks.
As key trade routes crumble, can nations innovate their way out of the global fertilizer trap?
With supply chains broken, when will the real impact of the fertilizer crisis hit your grocery bill?
How is the Red Sea conflict making fertilizer a more powerful geopolitical weapon than oil?
Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers 60% Spike in Fertilizer Prices: Global Supply Disruption and Food Security Threats
Overview
In February 2026, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered an immediate shockwave through global supply chains, causing acute disruptions in the fertilizer market. This critical maritime route’s closure sharply reduced the supply of urea, a key nitrogen fertilizer, leading to a projected 60% surge in urea prices for 2026. The crisis was intensified by prolonged shipping disruptions, new trade restrictions, and higher input costs, especially for natural gas. Countries heavily dependent on Middle Eastern fertilizer supplies, like Turkey, felt the impact instantly, highlighting the vulnerability of global agriculture to such supply chain shocks.