Oxford Economics Sees U.S. Housing Unaffordable for 7 More Years as Index Stays Below 80
Updated
Updated · Real Estate News · May 27
Oxford Economics Sees U.S. Housing Unaffordable for 7 More Years as Index Stays Below 80
4 articles · Updated · Real Estate News · May 27
Oxford Economics said its U.S. Housing Affordability Index was 77.9 in Q1 2026 and is unlikely to reach the affordability threshold of 100 for at least seven years.
Its most likely 10-year scenario keeps the index below 80, even though a best case of flat home prices and a roughly 50-basis-point rate drop would lift it to 100 by 2033.
The report is more pessimistic than other models because it includes property taxes, homeowners insurance and HOA fees, and uses a lower 2024 median income estimate—$81,604 versus NAR's $101,360.
Insurance costs are a notable drag: removing homeowners insurance would raise the national index to 83.5, with states such as Florida seeing especially sharp pressure.
A housing shortage of more than 2 million units and weak resale turnover—4.7% over the past year versus about 8% in 2020—are compounding the affordability squeeze.
Beyond the mortgage, are soaring hidden costs like taxes and insurance the real barrier to owning a home?
The U.S. is millions of homes short. Can new supply-focused policies actually solve the affordability crisis?
With homeownership delayed until age 40, is the American dream becoming impossible for the next generation?