U.S. Real Income Ex-Transfers Falls 0.4%, Revisions Shift Peak Back to September 2025
Updated
Updated · Econbrowser · May 28
U.S. Real Income Ex-Transfers Falls 0.4%, Revisions Shift Peak Back to September 2025
27 articles · Updated · Econbrowser · May 28
Real personal income excluding transfers fell 0.4% in April versus expectations for no change, and downward revisions now suggest the series peaked in September 2025 rather than January 2026.
That matters because income ex-transfers is one of the National Bureau of Economic Research's key recession indicators, alongside payrolls and other labor-market gauges that are also showing slower growth or late-2025 peaks.
Real consumption still rose, though more slowly, creating a gap with weak income growth that the report says may reflect support from rebounding household wealth as the S&P 500 recovered in April and May.
Q1 GDP was revised lower, with GDP at a 1.6% annualized pace and GDO at 1.3%, while final sales to private domestic purchasers grew 2.4%; Atlanta Fed GDPNow still estimates Q2 growth at 3.8% after a 0.5-point downgrade.
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