IISS Warns Taiwan War Could Trigger Nuclear Escalation as China Heads Toward 1,000 Warheads by 2030
Updated
Updated · Reuters · May 28
IISS Warns Taiwan War Could Trigger Nuclear Escalation as China Heads Toward 1,000 Warheads by 2030
7 articles · Updated · Reuters · May 28
A 156-page IISS assessment said a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan could escalate to the nuclear level, with both sides likely to strike command, communications and surveillance networks.
The study said the two militaries lack visible “guard rails” or rules of engagement to keep attacks on key C4ISR nodes from spiraling into a wider strategic confrontation.
Released before the May 29-31 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, the report argues Asia-Pacific is becoming the center of a new nuclear rivalry as states expand arsenals and long-range strike capabilities.
China’s growing arsenal sharpens that risk: a Pentagon report said Beijing is on track for 1,000 warheads by 2030, while outside estimates put current active stockpiles at 620 for China, 3,700 for the U.S. and 4,400 for Russia.
The warning lands after the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing and amid intensified Chinese military pressure on Taiwan, where doubts over U.S. commitment are expected to shadow the regional defense meeting.
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Taiwan Flashpoint: Nuclear Escalation Risks and the New Asia-Pacific Arms Race
Overview
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has warned that a conflict over Taiwan could sharply increase the risk of nuclear escalation, setting a serious tone for the upcoming Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. This influential security conference will focus on Taiwan’s security, regional defense, and nuclear stability in the Indo-Pacific. IISS expert Daniel Salisbury highlighted the difficult nuclear relationship between the U.S. and China, noting the lack of direct nuclear talks between their leaders. Unlike the Cold War era, when the U.S. and Soviet Union maintained regular arms control discussions, the current absence of communication channels with China raises the risk of miscalculation and unintended escalation.