Nomura Flags Uncertain BOJ Rate Hike Despite 92% July Odds as Iran War Threatens Oil Spike
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · May 28
Nomura Flags Uncertain BOJ Rate Hike Despite 92% July Odds as Iran War Threatens Oil Spike
7 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · May 28
Swap markets price a roughly 75% chance of a BOJ rate hike in June and 92% by July, but Nomura’s Michio Saito said a near-term move is still not assured.
Iran war risks could drive oil prices higher, he said, making the BOJ more cautious because Japan’s economy is heavily exposed to energy import costs.
That view contrasts with trader conviction that tightening is imminent, highlighting how geopolitical shocks could still derail the expected timing of the BOJ’s next move.
Will Japan's historic wage hikes be enough to offset the economic pain from soaring oil prices?
Japan has hedged its oil, but can its economy withstand a prolonged war in the Strait of Hormuz?