Prediction Markets Price Paxton Ahead in Texas Senate Race as Volume Tops $3.3 Million
Updated
Updated · Federal News Network · May 27
Prediction Markets Price Paxton Ahead in Texas Senate Race as Volume Tops $3.3 Million
11 articles · Updated · Federal News Network · May 27
$3.3 million in trading has already flowed into prediction markets on Texas's 2026 Senate race, with Ken Paxton priced in the mid-50% range against James Talarico in the mid-40s.
That edge follows Paxton's decisive Republican runoff win over John Cornyn, a result that underscored Donald Trump's sway with GOP voters even as some Republicans worry Paxton could make a safe seat more competitive.
Margin markets show bettors still expect a relatively close race: 55% of Paxton backers see him winning by 1+ point, while 42% of Talarico backers think he can win by at least 1 point.
Talarico, 37, is viewed as a potentially stronger-than-usual Texas Democrat because his Christian profile and moderate appeal could attract some Republican-leaning voters, though the report still casts Paxton as the likelier winner in a heavily Republican state.
After a record $110 million primary, how will fundraising shape this unexpectedly competitive election race?
What does the defeat of a 24-year incumbent signal about the future of statewide elections in Texas?
Can a campaign centered on a candidate's legal history alter decades of established voting patterns?