Copper Traders Rush Metal to US as $500 Comex Premium Revives Tariff Trade
Updated
Updated · MINING.com · May 27
Copper Traders Rush Metal to US as $500 Comex Premium Revives Tariff Trade
6 articles · Updated · MINING.com · May 27
$500-a-ton Comex premiums over the LME have revived the copper tariff trade, with traders again diverting spare metal to the US and executives expecting imports to rebound to 150,000-200,000 tons a month.
Renewed bets on Trump copper duties and stronger investor enthusiasm are driving the spread; the Commerce Department faces a June 30 deadline on a market update that could lead to tariffs from January 2027.
Trafigura has withdrawn hundreds of millions of dollars of copper from LME warehouses in the exchange's biggest such orders since 2013, partly to capture richer US prices.
Shipping is getting harder even as flows rise, with Iran war-linked freight disruption and Panama Canal congestion slowing South American cargoes into major US ports.
London copper hit $13,746 a ton on Wednesday, up about 43% in a year, and traders warn a 15% US tariff could drain LME stocks as the market outside the US is already in deficit.
With traders chasing US premiums, could the rest of the world face a severe copper shortage before tariffs are even imposed?
How will the AI industry's immense copper appetite be met if US trade policy continues disrupting global supply chains?
Will the global copper supply chain break before new mines can be built to meet soaring AI and energy demand?
U.S. Copper Market Disrupted: The 2025 Tariff Shock, $166 Billion Refund, and Global Supply Chain Fallout
Overview
In May 2026, the U.S. copper market is undergoing major changes after the Supreme Court declared key tariffs illegal, leading to a court-ordered refund of $166 billion in collected tariffs. This decision is expected to normalize the price gap between COMEX and LME copper, reducing previous arbitrage opportunities that caused price divergence. As a result, copper prices on the LME stabilized around $13,000 per metric ton, and U.S. COMEX inventories, which had surged above 400,000 short tons due to the tariffs, are likely to rebalance. These shifts mark a return to more stable market dynamics after a period of disruption.