Kalshi Traders Cut Strait of Hormuz July 1 Reopening Odds to 38% as White House Denies Iran Framework
Updated
Updated · CNBC · May 27
Kalshi Traders Cut Strait of Hormuz July 1 Reopening Odds to 38% as White House Denies Iran Framework
5 articles · Updated · CNBC · May 27
Kalshi traders now give just a 38% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 1, despite Iranian claims it could restore prewar conditions within a month of a U.S. peace deal.
The contract defines normal as a seven-day moving average above 60 transits using IMF PortWatch data, and odds for that outcome rose only modestly from roughly 32% after the latest reports.
By Aug. 1, traders are more optimistic, pricing a 60% chance of normal flows, up from 50-50 before Wednesday's reports.
Those odds still trail weekend confidence, when expectations of an imminent U.S.-Iran deal pushed July reopening chances as high as 50%, before the White House denied any draft framework existed.
With a peace deal in doubt, what is the true breaking point for the global economy?
Beyond nuclear talks, what hidden roadblocks could derail the entire U.S.-Iran peace process?
Are prediction markets a reliable war forecast or just a new form of high-stakes gambling?