AAII Survey Shows 44% of US Investors Expect Stocks to Fall as S&P 500 Gains 30%

3 articles · Updated · The Motley Fool · May 27

44% of U.S. investors now expect stock prices to fall over the next six months, while 32% still see further gains, according to the latest AAII weekly survey.
That bearish tilt comes after the S&P 500 climbed more than 30% in the past year, suggesting sentiment is softening even as the rally has kept setting highs.
Recent history shows the risk of exiting too early: since Deutsche Bank warned in June 2023 of a near-100% recession chance, the S&P 500 has returned nearly 76% and no recession has arrived.
The report argues preparation matters more than market timing, urging investors to hold financially strong companies with durable advantages because the average S&P 500 bear market lasts about nine months versus nearly three years for bull markets.

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