Talarico Leads Paxton 45%-38% in Texas Senate Poll as Democrat Courts Cornyn Voters
Updated
Updated · POLITICO · May 27
Talarico Leads Paxton 45%-38% in Texas Senate Poll as Democrat Courts Cornyn Voters
8 articles · Updated · POLITICO · May 27
A Lone Star Rising PAC poll put Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton 45% to 38%, with 14% undecided and independent Ted Brown at 3%.
The survey also showed Paxton deeply underwater—56% unfavorable to 30% favorable—while Talarico led by 13 points on economic trust and 15 points on representing voters' values.
Talarico said his path runs through supporters of former Sen. John Cornyn, pitching his bipartisan record on taxes, teacher pay and costs while stressing independence on border and energy issues.
Money is reinforcing that strategy: Talarico raised $27 million in the first quarter, held $10 million cash at March-end and pulled in another $600,000 Tuesday night, versus Paxton's $2.3 million on hand.
Republicans are already moving to define him, with Paxton and Club for Growth launching personal attacks, even as both parties frame the race as an unusually competitive test of whether Democrats can finally flip Texas.
Will a candidate's specific legislative record matter more than party labels?
How does billionaire PAC funding impact a candidate's anti-special interest message?
Texas 2026 Senate Election: Record Spending, GOP Fractures, and the Fight for a Decisive Seat
Overview
Ken Paxton secured a decisive victory in the Republican primary runoff on May 26, 2026, becoming the party’s nominee for the U.S. Senate. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn conceded, affirming his support for the GOP, while Democrats welcomed Paxton’s win, seeing his past vulnerabilities as an advantage for the general election. The race now shifts to a close contest between Paxton and Austin Democrat James Talarico. With both parties sharpening their strategies and polling showing a tight race, Texas is set for a highly competitive Senate election that could reshape the state’s political landscape.