Texas Democrats Target First Senate Flip Since 1988 as Talarico Tests Paxton Liabilities
Updated
Updated · POLITICO · May 27
Texas Democrats Target First Senate Flip Since 1988 as Talarico Tests Paxton Liabilities
5 articles · Updated · POLITICO · May 27
Texas Democrats are treating 2026 as their best statewide opening in decades, arguing James Talarico is ahead of past nominees in early polling and fundraising as he prepares to face Ken Paxton.
Paxton enters the general election after crushing John Cornyn in Tuesday’s runoff, but Democrats and some Republicans say his impeachment, fraud probe, ethics complaints and divorce could weigh on the GOP ticket.
Texas remains a brutal target: Democrats have not won a Senate race there since 1988, after losses by 20 points in the 2014 governor’s race, nearly 10 points in Cornyn’s 2020 reelection and 8 points in Ted Cruz’s 2024 race.
Talarico’s allies say conditions are different this time because a stronger Democratic field operation now exists and voter frustration over the Iran war and higher energy prices is hitting Republicans unusually hard in Texas.
The race could shape more than one seat, with Democrats hoping a competitive Senate contest lifts down-ballot candidates in a state expected to gain House seats after the 2030 Census.
How will the most expensive primary in U.S. history shape the Texas general election?
What does historic primary turnout signal about the Texas electorate ahead of November?
Can record fundraising overcome a thirty-year pattern of statewide election results in Texas?
Texas Senate 2026: Talarico’s Post-Primary Push to Consolidate Black Voters and Break the Democratic Drought
Overview
As of May 26, 2026, James Talarico’s campaign is focused on unifying the Democratic base after a competitive primary, aiming to build momentum for the general election. While the Republican opponent will be decided in a runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton, Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances in Texas. This optimism is fueled by national trends like rising voter frustration over costs, the ongoing conflict in Iran, and slipping approval ratings for Donald Trump. With Democrats overperforming in special elections, Talarico’s efforts to consolidate support could set the stage for a potential upset victory in Texas.