Jim Paulsen Warns S&P 500 Selloff Could Follow 10 Oil Spikes

3 articles · Updated · Business Insider · May 26

Record-high U.S. stocks could still face another S&P 500 selloff this year, Jim Paulsen said, even if the market later rallies back near current levels by year-end.
Paulsen based the warning on 10 major oil-price spikes since 1970, saying every peak was followed by equity turmoil—ranging from bear markets to long sideways stretches.
He argued investors may be misreading a possible U.S.-Iran peace deal as an all-clear, with relief after oil peaks often acting as a contrarian signal to sell rather than buy.
Oil has slipped from wartime highs but remains above prewar levels, pushing up gasoline prices, hurting consumer confidence, stoking inflation worries and lifting Treasury yields as markets trim Fed rate-cut bets.

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As peace talks falter and blockades tighten, is the stock market ignoring the true economic cost of a fragile peace?