Global Fertility Falls Below 2.1 in 2023, Putting Population Peak Around 2055

7 articles · Updated · The Atlantic · May 26

2023 marked the first time in human history that the world’s total fertility rate fell below the 2.1 births-per-woman replacement level, economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde said, signaling a possible population peak within about 30 years.
1.57 in the U.S. and roughly 1.1 in Colombia illustrate how the decline now spans rich and middle-income countries, with South Korea recording 230,000 births in 2023 versus a UN projection of 350,000.
Social-media-driven shifts in norms, wider female employment in service economies, longer education, expensive housing, contraception and weaker coupling rates are all cited as drivers, though the speed of the drop remains poorly understood.
2055 is Fernández-Villaverde’s estimate for the start of structural global population decline, which he says would strain pensions and public services even as lower energy demand could ease environmental pressure.
AI and robotics may help economies cope with labor shortages and welfare costs, but he argues they cannot offset the social and cultural disruption that prolonged depopulation could bring.

With shrinking populations and rising AI, are we heading towards a future of prosperity or social decay?

Is the global birth crash a demographic crisis or our planet's last hope for sustainability?

If cash and childcare fail, what will it take for societies to truly support families again?