Researchers Drop RCP8.5 Climate Scenario After 10 Years as Energy Trends Make It Implausible
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · May 26
Researchers Drop RCP8.5 Climate Scenario After 10 Years as Energy Trends Make It Implausible
4 articles · Updated · The New York Times · May 26
An international research team has retired RCP8.5, the high-emissions climate scenario used for more than a decade, saying it no longer fits the most plausible path for this century.
Recent energy trends drove the change: the scenario assumed extremely heavy future coal use, a premise the authors now call implausible in light of how power systems and emissions are evolving.
RCP8.5 had been cited in thousands of climate studies, so its removal has reignited a long-running dispute over whether past research and news coverage overstated climate risks by leaning on a worst-case pathway.
Other scientists say the shift does not eliminate the danger of severe warming, arguing that low-probability but high-impact emissions outcomes still matter for risk analysis and climate planning.
A key climate scenario used in 100,000 studies is now 'implausible.' What does this mean for a decade of climate research?
Why is our climate future now considered less catastrophic, yet also less hopeful, after the latest scientific updates?