U.S. May Payrolls Seen Rising 85,000 as Unemployment Slips to 4.28%

1 articles · Updated · continuumeconomics.com · May 26

85,000 jobs are forecast to be added in May, a slower pace than earlier rebounds but still above April’s 3-month average of 48,000 and 6-month average of 55,000.
4.28% unemployment is expected because employment should outpace a flat labor force after two straight declines, while participation is seen edging down to 61.79% before rounding.
60,000 private-service jobs are projected, with education and health contributing 50,000, while goods employment is seen up 30,000 on firmer manufacturing and construction.
10,000 jobs may be lost in trade, transport and utilities as high gasoline prices curb retail momentum and Spirit Airlines’ closure removes 17,000 positions from transport.
0.27% average hourly earnings growth is expected for May, but annual wage growth would still slow to 3.4%, signaling cooling pay pressure even as the labor market stays relatively healthy.

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