KC July hard red winter wheat settled at $6.82 after last week’s pullback, while soybean futures also edged lower as easing Iran tensions and rain across the southern U.S. turned sentiment bearish.
Soybean planting reached 67% by May 17 versus a 53% five-year average, reinforcing expectations that acreage could meet or exceed spring intentions and adding pressure despite firm processing demand.
NOPA put April soybean crush at 211.86 million bushels, with implied USDA crush near 223.5 million; soybean oil stayed in the mid-70-cent range as biodiesel and renewable diesel output rose in April.
Wheat demand remains relatively steady—total export commitments are 102% of USDA’s forecast—but next-marketing-year HRW outstanding sales fell to 11.5 million bushels from 34.7 million a year earlier.
Global supply signals are mixed, with slower Canadian planting, EU dryness and Australian drought concerns offset by Black Sea exports and Brazil’s large soybean crop, while a stronger dollar clouds U.S. competitiveness.
With the smallest U.S. wheat harvest since 1972, can massive global stocks prevent a major price shock?
Will America's biofuel boom consume its soybean supply, or will Brazil’s record harvest flood the market?
As key sea lanes face disruption, is the global fertilizer trade on the brink of collapse?