Equinor Warns 1-3 Month Hormuz Disruption Could Drive Europe Gas to €90
Updated
Updated · Business Insider Africa · May 25
Equinor Warns 1-3 Month Hormuz Disruption Could Drive Europe Gas to €90
8 articles · Updated · Business Insider Africa · May 25
Europe could face a severe pre-winter gas crunch if Strait of Hormuz disruptions last one to three months, Equinor said, warning benchmark Dutch TTF prices could climb toward €90 per megawatt-hour.
Gas storage remains the key vulnerability: European inventories were only 28% full at winter’s end and have recovered to about 35-37%, still far below the roughly 50% seasonal norm and the EU’s 80-90% pre-winter target.
The shortfall is acute in major economies, with Dutch storage at 5.8%, Germany near 20% and France around 27%, leaving Europe exposed as Middle East tensions and reduced Russian LNG imports tighten global competition for cargoes.
The Strait carries nearly a fifth of global seaborne oil and major LNG volumes from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, so any prolonged disruption would force Europe and Asia to compete harder for alternative supplies.
African producers are positioned to gain from that scramble, with Algeria expanding exports to Europe and the Americas, Nigeria boosting LNG and refined-fuel shipments, and Angola drawing fresh interest after a 500 million-barrel offshore discovery.
As sanctions create a shadow LNG market, what unforeseen risks does this new world energy order hold for global stability?
Is Europe's pivot from Russia simply trading one energy dependency for a more volatile and complex global entanglement?
Europe’s Gas Market in Peril: The 2026 Hormuz Blockade and Its Economic Fallout
Overview
In late May 2026, the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz—sparked by escalating U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran—triggered a severe energy crisis. Early signs appeared in March, as cargo ships gathered near the Strait, foreshadowing the turmoil. The closure exposed the fragility of global fossil fuel infrastructure, with over 40 major Middle Eastern energy assets damaged and key facilities like Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plant facing recovery times of 3 to 5 years. This crisis led to soaring gas prices and highlighted Europe’s vulnerability, as the region scrambled to secure alternative supplies and manage the economic fallout.