Ivan Cepeda Leads Colombia Polls Near 40% as 2 Right-Wing Rivals Battle for Second
Updated
Updated · New Politics · May 24
Ivan Cepeda Leads Colombia Polls Near 40% as 2 Right-Wing Rivals Battle for Second
10 articles · Updated · New Politics · May 24
May 31's first round is shaping up with Ivan Cepeda near 40% in polls, while Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella each hover around 20% ahead of a likely June 21 runoff.
The race has narrowed to 12 candidates but effectively split into a left-versus-right contest and a right-versus-right fight, with the conservative camp divided by personal feuds and competing claims to Alvaro Uribe's mantle.
Cepeda is running to extend Gustavo Petro's reform agenda after March 8 legislative elections made Pacto Historico the largest party, though it still holds only 36 of 183 lower-house seats and 25 of 103 Senate seats.
That leaves any Cepeda presidency facing the same fragmented Congress and coalition bargaining that constrained Petro, even as Green Alliance backing and other left support strengthen the ruling bloc.
The election is being watched across Latin America because a second straight leftist win in Colombia could counter recent regional rightward shifts and reshape the balance of forces in the region.
Will Colombia's vote be the last stand for the left in a right-tilting Latin America?
Could the promise of a Bukele-style crackdown put Colombia's democratic future at risk?
With violence at a peak, must Colombians choose between social reform and an iron-fisted security model?
Colombia’s 2026 Presidential Election: Polls, Polarization, and the High-Stakes Path to the Palacio de Nariño
Overview
As Colombia approaches the first round of its 2026 presidential election on May 31, the race has entered a critical phase marked by a legally mandated information blackout. Since May 22, all campaign events and public polling have been suspended, leaving voters and observers without new data on candidate momentum or shifts in public opinion. This enforced silence means that any discussion of recent trends is speculative, and the focus has now shifted entirely to the voting process itself. The outcome will be determined solely by the ballots cast, free from last-minute campaign influence or polling updates.