SportsLine Model Backs Thunder-Spurs Game 4 Under 219.5 After 10,000 Simulations

12 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · May 24

10,000 simulations led SportsLine's model to back the Under 219.5 for Sunday night's Thunder-Spurs Game 4, with one spread side also covering in more than 60% of runs.
51% of the simulations stayed below the total, with the model projecting only three Thunder players to score at least 13 points and three Spurs players to reach 15 or more.
Oklahoma City enters after a 123-108 Game 3 win that put it ahead in the Western Conference finals, while San Antonio is favored by 2.5 points at home and listed at -150 on the money line.
The matchup carries added uncertainty for the Thunder because Jalen Williams is questionable with a hamstring injury after missing Game 3, and Ajay Mitchell is out with a calf issue.
Game 4 tips at 8 p.m. ET in San Antonio, where the Spurs are trying to level the series as Oklahoma City chases a second straight NBA title.

Down 2-1, can the Spurs overcome long historical odds and an MVP to even the series against the defending champions at home?

With Jalen Williams likely out, can the champion Thunder prove their depth and take a commanding 3-1 series lead on the road?