SimCorp Sees S&P 500 Returning 3.9% in 2026 After 3 Years Above 18%
Updated
Updated · CNBC · May 23
SimCorp Sees S&P 500 Returning 3.9% in 2026 After 3 Years Above 18%
1 articles · Updated · CNBC · May 23
Melissa Brown of SimCorp said the S&P 500 is likely to post below-average, single-digit returns in 2026 after annual gains of 26% in 2023, 25% in 2024 and about 18% in 2025.
SBBI data underpin that view: since 1926, four straight years of returns above 15% have happened only three times, and the fourth year after a three-year annualized gain of 20% or more has averaged just 3.9%.
That compares with an 11.8% average annual return, leading Brown to say a gain above 10% next year would be extremely unusual rather than impossible.
The S&P 500 is up 8% so far in 2026, roughly in line with Brown's expectation for the full year, though AI-linked stocks could still keep the rally going longer.
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