NOAA sees an above-average 2026 northeast Pacific season, with 15-22 named storms in the eastern Pacific and 5-13 tropical cyclones in the central Pacific near Hawaii.
Strong El Niño is the main driver: NOAA's midpoint implies 18.5 named storms, 11.5 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific, versus 1991-2020 averages of 15, 8 and 4.
TSR also projects an active northwest Pacific typhoon season, forecasting 27 tropical storms, 18 typhoons and 11 major typhoons, with ACE at 410 versus a climatological 301.
The basin has already started hot: four named storms have formed so far, ACE is 190% of average, and Super Typhoon Sinkalu caused catastrophic damage, including more than $435 million on Guam.
Past strong El Niño years produced some of the Pacific's most intense storms, including 215-mph Hurricane Patricia in 2015 and a record 10 Category 5 typhoons in 1997.
Is the Pacific on track to break 1997’s record for the most Category 5 storms in a single season?
Will this 'super El Niño' steer a powerful hurricane toward an unprepared US Southwest this year?
2026 Pacific Storm Season Set to Break Records: El Niño Drives Unprecedented Typhoon and Hurricane Risks
Overview
The 2026 Pacific storm season is expected to be much more active than usual, mainly because of an anticipated El Niño event. El Niño causes warmer ocean waters to move east, which leads to more typhoons forming and traveling longer distances over the ocean before reaching Asia. This extended journey over warm water gives storms more time to grow stronger, increasing the chance of major typhoons. As a result, the outlook for 2026 points to a season with more frequent and intense storms, following well-known patterns seen in past El Niño years.