Recent declines in the S&P 500 have added to signs the rally is losing momentum as Middle East conflict, elevated energy prices and broader inflation fuel slowdown fears.
Historical seasonality reinforces that caution: the index has averaged about 2% gains from May through October versus 7% from November through April, and since 1990 it has lost roughly 2% in the summer span.
That pattern is far from automatic, though—the S&P 500 still rose 44% of the time from May to October since 1990, underscoring how uneven year-to-year outcomes can be.
For investors, the report argues the bigger risk is market timing: recessions have been temporary setbacks since the 1950s, and long-term holders are generally better off sticking with broad indexes or intact stock theses.
With markets near all-time highs, are investors ignoring the biggest economic risks since the 2007 financial crisis?
Is the AI-fueled market rally a tech revolution or a dangerous bubble concentrated in just a handful of companies?
How will President Trump's sudden Iran negotiations reshape the Federal Reserve's battle against persistent inflation?