Barclays Warns Brent Could Top $100 in 2026 as Hormuz Closure Drains Inventories
Updated
Updated · OilPrice.com · May 22
Barclays Warns Brent Could Top $100 in 2026 as Hormuz Closure Drains Inventories
3 articles · Updated · OilPrice.com · May 22
Barclays kept its 2026 Brent forecast at $100 a barrel but said risks now skew higher as the Strait of Hormuz closure drives what it called the worst supply disruption in history.
A 6 million-8 million bpd supply deficit is draining U.S. and global stockpiles toward multi-year lows, with U.S. inventories nearing their weakest levels since 2020.
Even if tanker traffic resumed immediately, Barclays said starting inventories would still sit about 20 million barrels below the tightest levels seen recently.
Goldman Sachs this week also flagged record-fast draws, estimating global inventories have been falling by 8.7 million bpd since early May while exports through Hormuz run at just 5% of normal.
Brent rose 2.3% to about $105 on Friday, while a Bloomberg Intelligence survey showed investors and energy specialists expect oil to average $81-$100 over the next 12 months.
Beyond the gas pump, how is the Hormuz crisis now threatening global food supplies and everyday goods?
With the global economy at stake, what is the true diplomatic price to reopen the Strait of Hormuz?
Could the worst oil crisis in history accidentally fast-track the world's green energy transition?
Strait of Hormuz Crisis: 18% Oil Price Spike Triggers Global Economic Turmoil and Energy Transition Push
Overview
A series of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran triggered Iranian retaliatory bombings, sharply escalating regional tensions and leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This critical chokepoint’s shutdown caused a significant disruption to global energy markets, immediately sending oil prices soaring. Brent Crude and WTI prices jumped by 18% and 19% respectively within a week, highlighting the market’s acute sensitivity to supply shocks. The ongoing conflict and sustained closure continue to drive uncertainty, inflation, and fears of prolonged economic fallout, while also accelerating global efforts to diversify energy sources and strengthen energy security.