A proposed regional bargain would have Gulf monarchies negotiate directly with Tehran, tying a phased U.S. military pullout over five years to Iranian concessions on nuclear oversight, missiles, proxies and nonbelligerence.
The argument is driven by the current U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which has left Gulf states hosting American forces while their hotels, energy sites and shipping routes remain exposed to Iranian retaliation and Hormuz disruption.
Major U.S. installations that could be affected include Al Udeid in Qatar, the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, Al Dhafra in the UAE, and bases in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, with infrastructure left intact for a rapid return if needed.
The proposal says Gulf states should pair diplomacy with stronger self-defense, building mine-clearing, counterdrone and warfighting capabilities instead of relying on outside patrons whose protection has repeatedly fallen short.
At stake is a broader shift in Gulf security: replacing permanent U.S. forward deployment with a treaty-backed regional order in which Gulf states shape their own deterrence and economic ties with Iran.
What prevents Tehran from breaking its nuclear promises once the primary US military leverage in the region is gone?
With Gulf states pursuing rival alliances, can a unified regional defense against Iran ever truly be achieved?
Is the US exit driven by a need to replenish weapon systems for which it now depends on Chinese materials?
The 2026 Iran War and Its Aftermath: Fragile Ceasefire, Gulf Security Reassessment, and the Struggle for Regional Stability
Overview
The 2026 Iran War began with major strikes by the United States and Israel against Iranian military targets and leaders, quickly escalating into a wider regional conflict. After weeks of intense fighting, Pakistan brokered a ceasefire on April 7, 2026, which temporarily halted the violence and aimed to open the door for diplomatic solutions. However, as of May 2026, the ceasefire remains extremely fragile, with deep tensions still present across the region. The immediate aftermath has resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis, highlighting the ongoing challenges and uncertainty facing efforts to achieve lasting peace and stability.