America, Iran Double-Blockade Hormuz as 19 Non-Iranian Tankers Keep Sailing

12 articles · Updated · The Globe and Mail · May 21

At least 19 non-Iranian tankers have already entered and exited the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. and Iran imposed overlapping restrictions and Tehran reopened passage to “friendly” traffic.
The disruption has been cushioned by alternative routes and supply shifts: Saudi east-west pipeline exports climbed from under 800,000 barrels a day to more than 5 million, while Abu Dhabi’s Fujairah exports rose nearly 40% to 1.6 million.
Additional supply is also coming from outside the Gulf, with U.S. crude exports hitting an April record, Canadian output up 140,000 barrels a day and buyers replacing damaged Qatari supply with U.S., Canadian and Australian LNG.
Iran’s mooted $1-a-barrel transit toll would add about $2 million per tanker, but the report argues that cost is small against roughly $20-a-barrel Gulf production costs and would likely spur more global output if prices rose.
The broader market case is that the shock should be temporary rather than 2022-style inflationary: energy is about 6% of U.S. and Canadian CPI baskets, core U.S. goods prices rose just 1.1% in April, and the MSCI World is already 4% above pre-war levels.

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