Economists Lift US Q2 Inflation Forecast to 3.9% as Iran War Delays Fed Cut

4 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · May 22

Bloomberg’s latest economist survey now sees the US personal consumption expenditures price index rising 3.9% in the second quarter from a year earlier, up from a 3.6% estimate last month.
The revision reflects an Iran war-driven price shock that is spreading beyond energy costs, broadening inflation pressure across the economy.
Economists also raised their inflation forecasts for every subsequent quarter through early 2027, signaling a more persistent price outlook than previously expected.
That hotter path pushed back expectations for the next Federal Reserve interest-rate cut, suggesting policymakers may keep borrowing costs higher for longer.

As the Iran war triggers a historic oil shock, can the Fed tame inflation without causing a global recession?

Beyond gas prices, how will this conflict permanently alter supply chains for food, fertilizer, and technology?

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, is the world on the brink of an unavoidable global food crisis?