Fed Seen Holding Rates With 97.2% Odds at Warsh’s First FOMC Meeting

9 articles · Updated · Fortune · May 22

CME’s FedWatch now shows a 97.2% probability the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting in a few weeks.
Hawkish messaging is driving that view: Macquarie’s Thierry Wizman said Fed officials have started sounding more forceful on inflation after a bond-market selloff, citing remarks from Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson.
Wizman said more officials will need to reinforce that stance in coming weeks if the Fed wants to help stabilize Treasury yields and convince markets it is serious about inflation.
Goldman Sachs also expects little immediate policy shift beyond rates, forecasting only modest balance-sheet expansion until early 2027 before growth returns to about $300 billion a year.

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