Trump Sees Iran Deal Chance Despite Bombing Plans as Oil Markets Ignore Months of Claims
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · May 20
Trump Sees Iran Deal Chance Despite Bombing Plans as Oil Markets Ignore Months of Claims
6 articles · Updated · The New York Times · May 20
Monday’s remark that a deal with Iran still has a “very good chance” came as Trump was also preparing to resume bombing, extending a pattern of pairing diplomacy talk with military threats.
May 10 negotiating positions from Tehran offered familiar hard-line demands and no meaningful concessions, and Trump soon dismissed Iran’s latest offer as “a piece of garbage.”
Since March, Trump has repeatedly predicted progress or an imminent end to the war, then shifted back to threats, with several claimed diplomatic breakthroughs later denied or failing to materialize.
Markets once swung sharply on his comments—Brent briefly fell below $100 and stocks rebounded after off-ramp signals—but by late April gasoline hit a four-year high and investors appeared less responsive.
The wider backdrop remains unresolved: a Pakistan-mediated cease-fire faltered, the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed, and the conflict continues to pressure global energy flows.
Can Pakistan's diplomacy succeed where global powers failed to reopen the world's most vital oil chokepoint?
Has Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz become its ultimate weapon against the global economy?
Is Trump's erratic Iran strategy a brilliant tactic or a path to an unwinnable regional war?
US-Iran Standoff 2026: Fragile Ceasefire, Failed Nuclear Talks, and Global Oil Shock
Overview
As of May 21, 2026, the standoff between the United States and Iran remains highly unstable, with recent diplomatic efforts collapsing due to deep disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program. High-level talks in Islamabad failed when the US demanded a 20-year halt to uranium enrichment, while Iran offered only five years, leaving a wide gap between their positions. Meanwhile, Iran’s restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the US naval blockade have further disrupted global oil and gas supplies. These failed negotiations and escalating economic pressures highlight the fragility of the ceasefire and the real risk of renewed conflict.