SportsLine Backs Canadiens at +171 in Game 1 as Model Sees 51% Upset Odds
Updated
Updated · CBS Sports · May 21
SportsLine Backs Canadiens at +171 in Game 1 as Model Sees 51% Upset Odds
6 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · May 21
SportsLine’s 10,000-game simulation gives Montreal a 51% chance to win Thursday’s Eastern Conference Final opener, backing the Canadiens money line despite Carolina opening as a -207 home favorite.
That edge rests partly on Montreal’s regular-season success against Carolina—the Canadiens won all three meetings and outscored the Hurricanes 15-8—even as they enter on two days’ rest after another seven-game series.
Carolina still brings the fresher profile after sweeping Ottawa and Philadelphia and getting 11 days off, a contrast the model also reflects in player props built around Hurricanes pressure.
The model’s highlighted props include Nick Suzuki for 1+ assist at -130 and Seth Jarvis for 3+ shots on goal, with projections of 0.79 assists and 3.47 shots respectively.
SportsLine says its top-rated money-line NHL picks are up +668 entering the conference finals, framing Game 1 as a rest-versus-resilience test between the top-seeded Hurricanes and playoff-surging Canadiens.
Why does a computer model favor the underdog Canadiens against the undefeated and well-rested Hurricanes?
Will an unprecedented 12-day layoff lead to rust or a rout for the heavily favored Hurricanes tonight?