Kalshi Odds of SpaceX-Tesla Merger Drop to 33% After 40-Point Reversal
Updated
Updated · CNBC · May 21
Kalshi Odds of SpaceX-Tesla Merger Drop to 33% After 40-Point Reversal
4 articles · Updated · CNBC · May 21
Kalshi traders now put only 33% odds on a SpaceX-Tesla merger before May 2027, after pricing it near 77% before April 2027 on Friday.
The reversal came as analyst speculation split sharply: Wedbush's Dan Ives said Elon Musk could combine the companies by next year to tighten control of the AI ecosystem, while traders turned more cautious.
Musk has already flagged the complexity of any tie-up, saying intercompany arrangements around the Terafab chip plant require approval from both boards and conflict-resolution steps to protect each set of shareholders.
The merger talk gained traction after SpaceX filed to go public and as Tesla faces pressure in China, where BYD and groups including Geely and Chery outpaced it in April EV wholesale rankings.
Is the Tesla merger a genius pivot to AI or a desperate rescue from the EV price wars?
With key talent fleeing, can Musk’s unified tech empire actually achieve its world-changing ambitions?